The protein paradox: Why the industry’s biggest success story is becoming a major supply chain challenge

According to insights from SIAL Paris, the leading European food & beverage trade fair, more than one in five new food products launched in Europe during 2024 carried a high-protein claim. But as its popularity soars, so do supply chain challenges.

More than rising commodity prices

It would be easy to describe today's market as facing a protein shortage, but that risks overlooking the underlying issue. The problem isn't that the world is running out of protein. The problem is that the industry's fastest-growing categories have become heavily dependent on a small number of protein sources.

Many manufacturers continue to rely on a relatively small group of protein ingredients such as whey, which combines excellent amino acid profiles with digestibility and exceptional functionality across countless applications. But here’s the rub. When an entire industry depends on one ingredient to meet so many different formulation needs, it soon comes under pressure.

What's happening in the whey market today is therefore about far more than rising commodity prices. It reflects a combination of long-term trends that are reinforcing one another, creating sustained demand rather than the peaks and corrections experienced in the past.

The rapid uptake of GLP-1 medicines is one of the most significant developments in protein demand. By slowing gastric emptying, these treatments help people feel fuller for longer, reducing overall food intake. Healthcare professionals commonly recommend increasing protein intake to help preserve lean muscle mass during weight loss. It is precisely this that has created a new nutritional focus - when consumers are eating less food, every bite must deliver more nutritional value.

But GLP-1 therapies are only part of the story as scientific validation around protein evolves. While the long-standing recommendation was around 0.8g of protein per kilogram of body weight, many nutrition experts now suggest that between 1.2g and 1.6g per kilogram as a more appropriate target for many adults, particularly those looking to maintain muscle mass as they age. Add to that continued interest in satiety, immunity and healthy ageing, and it becomes clear why protein has become one of the food industry's most influential ingredients.

Growing formats & applications

Manufacturers have responded accordingly. Protein enrichment is no longer confined to powders and bars, but an ever-evolving product lineup aimed at families, older consumers and busy professionals as much as fitness enthusiasts. The European protein ingredients market reflects that momentum, with forecasts valuing it at around US$6.4 billion and continuing to grow at approximately 5% annually. The commercial opportunity is obvious. What is less obvious is the strain on ingredient supply.

European food-grade whey powder prices have risen by more than 50% since the beginning of 2026, while Whey Protein Concentrate 80 has exceeded €26,000 per tonne in some markets. Availability continues to tighten, lead times have extended, and some suppliers have already allocated production well into 2026 and beyond. Larger manufacturers are securing long-term supply agreements wherever possible, while smaller brands are often left managing significant cost increases or reformulating products at relatively short notice.

This growing reliance on a relatively narrow protein base changes the conversation for formulators. As demand expands across more categories and consumer groups, resilience becomes just as important as nutritional performance.

New protein ingredients are needed

For many years, the objective was straightforward: source more whey. Today, manufacturers are asking a different question altogether. How do we deliver the same nutritional performance while reducing dependence on a single ingredient? Answering that requires a broader view of protein itself.

Consumers are also becoming more discerning. The number of grams displayed on the front of the pack still matters, but it is no longer the only measure of success. Texture, flavour, mouthfeel and digestibility all influence whether consumers return to a product. This is particularly relevant for people taking GLP-1 medicines, many of whom experience gastrointestinal side effects while also being encouraged to increase their protein intake. A product that delivers excellent nutrition but feels heavy or uncomfortable to eat is unlikely to succeed over the long term.

In other words, the industry is moving beyond a conversation about protein quantity towards one focused on protein quality and the overall eating experience. It is precisely this that creates opportunities to rethink formulation strategies rather than simply searching for a direct replacement for whey.

Today's formulators have access to a much broader protein toolbox than they did even a decade ago. Soy continues to offer one of the strongest combinations of functionality, amino acid quality and reliable global supply, while ingredients such as pea, fava bean, chickpea and lentil proteins have all advanced significantly as processing technologies improve flavour, texture and consistency. In addition, processing innovations including precision fermentation and hydrolysed proteins enable manufacturers to overcome long-standing challenges around solubility, mouthfeel and sensory performance.

Solutions such as IFF's SUPRO® soy protein portfolio demonstrate how carefully selected protein systems can partially or fully replace whey across many applications without compromising quality. The objective should not be to identify one perfect substitute, but to develop formulations that draw on a broader range of protein sources according to the technical, nutritional and commercial requirements of each product.

A new dynamic for protein suppliers

This is also changing the role of ingredient suppliers. Conversations increasingly extend beyond sourcing raw materials to understanding functionality, optimising formulations and balancing nutrition, sensory performance, digestibility and supply resilience. Those considerations are becoming inseparable.

Ultimately, consumers don't buy protein because they're counting grams. They buy products that taste good, fit naturally into everyday life and leave them feeling satisfied. The brands that succeed over the coming years will recognise that protein is no longer simply a nutritional claim but part of the overall eating experience, combining science, functionality, digestibility and enjoyment in equal measure.

Demand for protein is unlikely to slow. If anything, it will continue to grow as populations age, GLP-1 medicines become more widely adopted, and consumers expect more from the foods they buy every day.

Protein's success has transformed the food industry. Yet that success is also exposing the risks of relying too heavily on too few protein sources. The next generation of innovation will not be driven by adding more protein, but by creating more resilient ways to deliver it.

For more information on ACI Group’s protein portfolio, visit www.acigroup.biz.