Are appetite suppressants forcing a rethink in food innovation, formulation and value creation?

Until recently, appetite suppressants were often dismissed as a passing wellness trend. Today, food brands are beginning to recognise that their sustainable adoption could pose a material challenge to traditional retail and manufacturing models. In ACI Group’s view, the reality sits somewhere between hype and disruption.  

While long-term health outcomes, adherence and usage data are still evolving, medications such as Mounjaro, Ozempic and Wegovy are already signalling more than a short-term dip in food and beverage consumption patterns. This potentially points to a structural shift that calls into question how value is created to the consumer – from raw materials , how branded ingredients are being used through to finished products and how they are marketed, when overall food volumes can no longer be taken for granted.  

For forward-looking food manufacturers and savvy retailers, this shift demands a strategic rethink of product development and reformulation, with greater emphasis on nutrient-dense foods, smaller portions and formats aligned to the needs of a growing cohort of consumers using these medications.   

A structural shift, not a short-term disruption

GLP-1 medications such as semaglutide and tirzepatide were originally developed to treat diabetes - a non-communicable lifestyle disease with far-reaching consequences for individuals, economies and healthcare systems. Global diabetes prevalence, driven in part by lifestyle and diet, has now surpassed 800 million adults, with rates doubling from around 7% in 1990 to 14% in 2022, according to the medical journal, The Lancet.

More recently, adoption has accelerated well beyond diabetic populations. In 2022, an estimated 51% of adults in Europe were classified as overweight in 2022, and obesity-related health issues continue to place mounting pressure on public health systems. Against this backdrop, demand for GLP-1 medications among non-diabetic consumers has grown rapidly.

These therapies should not be framed as a silver bullet for weight loss. Access remains uneven across demographics; side effects are well-documented, and long-term use is not recommended. In the UK, for example, around 90% of GLP-1 users seeking weight loss pay privately, while NHS prescriptions are capped at two years. Yet despite these constraints, uptake continues to accelerate.

Nowhere is this clearer than in the United States, with 2024 a breakout year for GLP-1 anti-obesity medication prescriptions. Doctors wrote nearly half a million new anti-obesity GLP-1 scripts between January and June of that year, with the rate doubling between July and September. In 2024 alone, script acceleration yielded more than 2,000,000 new anti-obesity prescriptions over the course of the year in the United States.

From a food industry perspective, the critical issue is not the clinical debate around the safety and long-term outcomes which are still unknown. It is the growing evidence that these medications are reshaping food consumption volumes at scale. The more relevant questions are how GLP-1s are influencing the culture of weight management, whether they represent a lasting reduction in food volumes and how manufacturers and retailers will adapt to this new reality.  

An article in The Grocer notes that GLP-1 adoption in major Western markets has already reached levels sufficient to influence aggregate food purchasing patterns. Households with at least one GLP-1 user consistently reduce grocery spend within months of starting treatment, with the steepest declines in snacks, confectionery, baked goods and calorie-dense convenience foods.

This trend is reinforced by data from Numerator, based on verified grocery receipts. GLP-1 users reduce overall food unit volumes by 8.6%, with alcohol purchases falling even further at 14.5%. Confectionery purchases drop by up to 72%, cookies and baked goods by 69% and fast food by as much as 77%. At the same time, spending increases in other categories, including a 54% rise in fruits and vegetables purchases, a 44% increase in weight management foods and a 38% uplift in white meat products such as poultry and fish.

Crucially, GLP-1 users are not abandoning food categories altogether. They are eating less frequently, more deliberately and in smaller portions, with lower tolerance for foods that feel heavy, greasy or nutritionally empty.

Unlike other appetite suppressants or even bariatric surgery, GLP-1s work by dampening the neurological drive for compulsive eating. This directly challenges categories designed around impulse, immediacy and high-volume consumption. For manufacturers reliant on large volumes or single-sitting occasion indulgence, long-standing assumptions are being tested.

While projected volume declines remain modest in percentage, their impact is far from trivial. Morgan Stanley forecasts potential long-term declines by 2035 of up to 2% in alcohol and soft drinks, 1 to 2% in fast food and up to 3% in impulse, low-nutrition snacks. In categories worth tens of billions, these shifts are enough to reshape innovation priorities and portfolio strategies.  

The strongest responses are coming from companies that are adapting through reformulation and portfolio evolution, rather than reactive positioning. Nestlé, for example, is developing advanced nutritional solutions for GLP-1 users, drawing on its expertise in medical and elderly nutrition to create high-protein products delivering 20-30g per serving without excessive volume or heaviness.

Similarly, UK-based Marks & Spencer recently launched its Nutrient Dense range, aimed at consumers seeking smaller, more nutrient-rich, ready-to-eat meals and functional beverages. Danone has followed with its Oikos Fusion beverage, specifically designed in smaller portion sizes to deliver concentrated nutrients efficiently, rather than targeting a particular medical intervention such as GLP-1 therapy.

However, caution is also warranted. The history of weight-loss brands such as SlimFast and Nutrisystem serves as a reminder that narrowly framed, trend-led innovation rarely creates durable value. In a market moving at increasing speed, success will favour companies that embed nutritional density, portion discipline, and consumer trust in their long-term innovation strategies, rather than chasing short-term demand cues. It is also worth noting the irony that healthy, active individuals often consume higher calorie intake, so portion control and nutrient delivery must be carefully balanced to appeal to different lifestyles.

Finally, guidance on what can be communicated on-pack remains limited, but is expected to evolve soon, reinforcing the importance of designing products that deliver clear nutritional benefit rather than making claims that may be restricted.

Nutritional efficiency vs downsizing

As calorie intake declines, a brand's first instinct is often to reduce portion size by focusing on smaller pack sizes.

While this can improve convenience, it brings immediate technical and operational considerations, including shelf life, food safety and quality control. Barrier protection becomes particularly critical for products containing healthier unsaturated fats, which are more susceptible to oxidation in reduced volume formats.

While packaging innovation has kept pace with the rise in smaller snack sizes, especially in grab-and-go servings, GLP-1 users and consumers are following similar eating patterns. However, smaller portions are not enough. Today’s informed consumer quickly recognises the difference between eating less and being nourished less. Simply shrinking pack sizes without improving nutritional density risks being perceived as a cost reduction disguised as health, and that perception will erode consumer trust in a product or brand.

As volume falls, nutritional quality must rise to take its place. This shifts reformulation from a tactical exercise to a strategic priority. In a lower intake environment, the commercial focus moves away from how much food is sold towards how much value is delivered per bite. As a result, ingredients and ingredient suppliers play a more central role, with greater emphasis on high-function and performance-led solutions.

Here, fibre stands out for its ability to support satiety, glycaemic control and digestive comfort – benefits that matter more, not less, for appetite-suppressed consumers. Protein continues to dominate consumer attention, underpinning functional performance and nutritional reassurance. Meanwhile, functional botanicals and bioactives are gaining relevance by supporting metabolic health and enhancing taste and sensory appeal.  

Why reformulating wins

The appeal of launching GLP-1-specific product lines is understandable, but it is rarely the most efficient route to market. New product development typically takes between 3 to 12 months, from concept to launch, with timelines extending further depending on formulation complexity, regulatory requirements and available resources.  

More importantly, consumers using GLP-1s weight loss medications are not seeking to overhaul their diets. Appetite suppression often reduces rather than increases willingness to experiment with unfamiliar products. In practice, consumers gravitate towards food they already trust. Strengthening the nutritional profile of existing products is therefore more effective than fragmenting portfolios with niche launches.

Innovation in this context does not mean novelty. It means smarter formulation, ingredient optimisation, improved sensory and organoleptic performance within familiar food and beverage formats. Brands that focus on nutritional efficiency, delivering more function, flavour and satiety in smaller portions, will be better aligned with emerging consumption patterns.

GLP-1 medications were not designed to disrupt the food system. Yet, by reducing appetite at scale, they are accelerating a shift from passive consumption towards more deliberate, purposeful eating. Brands that invest in reformulation, ingredient performance and balanced sensory experience will be best positioned to remain relevant for consumers while protecting long-term value.  

For more insights into our products that support nutrient-dense product reformulation, please contact the ACI Group today.